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Pięć dni, trzy szoki, dwa szlaki zamknięte — jak kryzys paliw ogasza handel światowy

• 15 września 2026: tri-crisis converged — Saudi pipeline attack (7 mb/d), Hormuz diplomatic collapse, US diesel record ($5.26/gal). • Global supply removed: 17–21 mb/d equivalent to 1973 embargo but hitting a market stripped of buffers (US distillate down 30 years). • Trade implications: 1.3 billion barrels lost circulation via Hormuz; routes shift to Cape of Good Hope (+10–14 days transit time). • Polish logistics operators face surcharges, route delays, and cost pass-through to food, energy, and retail sectors. • Forecasts: Goldman Sachs $85/bbl (if routes reopen); Rystad escalation scenario $140–200/bbl if key infrastructure struck.